Global Macro Signals Favor Price of Bitcoin In Second Half of 2025

Bitcoin's Bullish Outlook in H2 2025 Driven by Macro Trends

Bitcoin surged to an all-time high of $111,486 in May 2025, supported by favorable macroeconomic conditions. Key indicators—including a weakening U.S. dollar, rising global liquidity, and easing monetary policies—suggest continued upward momentum for BTC.

Economic Growth & Policy Shifts

• The U.S. economy grew 3.8% in Q2 2025, with inflation easing to the Fed’s 2% target.
• The Fed held rates at 4.25–4.50%, but markets expect cuts by year-end.
• The ECB cut rates to 1.75% as Eurozone inflation stabilized, boosting risk assets like Bitcoin.

U.S. Dollar Weakness & Liquidity Expansion

• The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) posted its worst H1 performance in 40 years, historically a bullish signal for Bitcoin.
• Global liquidity is expanding, with central bank data showing increased capital inflows into crypto markets.
• Traders anticipate 0.75–1.00% Fed rate cuts, further supporting BTC’s upside.

Institutional Demand & Regulatory Progress

• U.S. regulatory clarity (e.g., CLARITY/GENIUS Acts) and 80+ crypto ETF filings under SEC review are driving institutional adoption.
• Corporate treasuries are adding Bitcoin to balance sheets after FASB allowed fair-value accounting.

Seasonality & Holder Behavior

• July has historically been strong for Bitcoin in bull cycles (2013, 2017, 2021).
• 45% of BTC supply hasn’t moved in 3+ years, indicating long-term holder confidence.

Conclusion

A combination of macro tailwinds, institutional interest, and liquidity growth sets the stage for Bitcoin’s potential gains in H2 2025. While past trends don’t guarantee future performance, current fundamentals remain bullish.